Accrington ST 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Accrington ST's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Accrington ST at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.60 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Crawley Town edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Accrington ST 1–3 Crawley Town — a Crawley Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 50% | Crawley Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.37 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.944 / defence 0.891 | Crawley Town attack 0.935 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.316. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 32 games and Crawley Town's last 78.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 42% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.37 | Draw 3.50 | Crawley Town 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 30% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 42% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Accrington ST 1.37 / Crawley Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.944 / def 0.891 | Crawley Town attack 0.935 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Crawley Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Accrington ST 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 42% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Accrington ST and Crawley Town will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Accrington ST vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.94) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.94x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 32 games and Crawley Town's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.50
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.46
1.10
Crawley Town xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.10 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 78 games, going 24W 18D 36L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.18 PPG from 78 outings (25W 17D 36L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.18 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 15W 6D 17L across their last 38 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 38 away games (7W 9D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 24W 18D 36L in their last 78 games (1.15 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 17D 36L in their last 78 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crawley Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.34 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 1, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Accrington ST 3-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 45%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Accrington ST) and 50% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games; Crawley Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Accrington ST's recent games and 50% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 71% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Accrington ST 0-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.37 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Crawley Town attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 42% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 29%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 50%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Crawley Town 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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