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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Tranmere share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Chesterfield and Tranmere drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.80 xG and Tranmere 1.02 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chesterfield fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Tranmere attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 56% | Draw 23% | Tranmere 21%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 52%, Tranmere 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights