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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Salford City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Salford City 2-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.64 xG and Salford City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Salford City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.31 / defence 0.99 against Salford City attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 45% | Draw 24% | Salford City 31%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 58%, Salford City 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Salford City's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.47 PPG, Salford City 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights