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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Chesterfield and Port Vale drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.11 xG and Port Vale 0.98 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 37% | Draw 33% | Port Vale 30%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 56%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.40 PPG, Port Vale 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights