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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · Semi-finals

Kick-off

Sun 10 May 2026

18:00

Venue

SMH Group Stadium

Competition

League Two

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Chesterfield Win

42%

Chesterfield

2.38

27%

Draw

3.73

31%

Notts County

3.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.2%

Home win

0 – 1

9.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.36

Chesterfield xG

Total xG

2.50

1.14

Notts County xG

42%
27%
31%
ChesterfieldDrawNotts County

2.38

42%

Home win

3.73

27%

Draw

3.20

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.98

49%

BTTS No

2.02

Clean Sheet

32%

Chesterfield

3.12

26%

Notts County

3.91

Win to Nil

13%

Chesterfield

7.44

8%

Notts County

12.50

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.2 9.3 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 11.2 12.7 7.2 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.6 8.7 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 3.5 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1
4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.363
λ Away (xG) 1.138
Total xG 2.501
League avg home goals 1.291
League avg away goals 1.199
Chesterfield attack strength 1.067
Chesterfield defence strength 0.905
Notts County attack strength 1.049
Notts County defence strength 0.990
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 92 / 92