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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Notts County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Notts County 2-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.47 xG and Notts County 1.34 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Notts County landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.31 / defence 1.04 against Notts County attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 40% | Draw 26% | Notts County 34%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 55%, Notts County 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.52 PPG, Notts County 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights