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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Fri 26 Dec 2025

15:00

Venue

SMH Group Stadium

Competition

League Two

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Chesterfield Win

40%

Chesterfield

2.53

26%

Draw

3.79

34%

Notts County

2.94

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

8.8%

Home win

2 – 1

8.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.47

Chesterfield xG

Total xG

2.81

1.34

Notts County xG

40%
26%
34%
ChesterfieldDrawNotts County

2.53

40%

Home win

3.79

26%

Draw

2.94

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.74

43%

BTTS No

2.35

Clean Sheet

26%

Chesterfield

3.83

23%

Notts County

4.33

Win to Nil

10%

Chesterfield

9.67

8%

Notts County

12.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.0 8.1 5.4 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 8.8 11.9 8.0 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 6.5 8.7 5.8 2.6 0.9 0.2
3 3.2 4.2 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.465
λ Away (xG) 1.342
Total xG 2.807
League avg home goals 1.342
League avg away goals 1.271
Chesterfield attack strength 1.313
Chesterfield defence strength 1.044
Notts County attack strength 1.011
Notts County defence strength 0.831
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 67