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Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Morecambe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Morecambe 4-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.78 xG and Morecambe 0.88 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.21 / defence 1.14 against Morecambe attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 58% | Draw 24% | Morecambe 18%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 57%, Morecambe 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Morecambe's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Morecambe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights