🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Grimsby 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Grimsby 2-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.04 xG and Grimsby 1.14 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Grimsby attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 33% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 38%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 52%, Grimsby 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (87 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (87 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.54 PPG, Grimsby 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights