🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fleetwood Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Fleetwood Town 3-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.70 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.75 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fleetwood Town landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.37 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 38% | Draw 23% | Fleetwood Town 40%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 56%, Fleetwood Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.44 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights