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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Doncaster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Doncaster 5-2 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.13 xG and Doncaster 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Doncaster attack 1.17 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 31% | Draw 30% | Doncaster 39%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Doncaster 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.39 PPG, Doncaster 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Doncaster (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights