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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Crewe 2-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.41 xG and Crewe 1.25 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crewe landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Crewe attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 41% | Draw 26% | Crewe 33%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 51%, Crewe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Crewe's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.54 PPG, Crewe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights