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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Chesterfield and Crawley Town drew 2-2 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.99 xG and Crawley Town 0.65 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Crawley Town attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 51/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 69% | Draw 20% | Crawley Town 11%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 57%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chesterfield (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights