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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Bradford share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield and Bradford finished level at 3-3 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.54 xG and Bradford 1.06 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bradford outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Bradford attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 47% | Draw 27% | Bradford 25%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 56%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bradford's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.47 PPG, Bradford 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights