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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield and Accrington ST finished level at 3-3 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.78 xG and Accrington ST 0.77 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Accrington ST outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.27 / defence 0.89 against Accrington ST attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 62% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 16%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 55%, Accrington ST 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights