Cheltenham 1-0 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cheltenham face Tranmere.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cheltenham welcome Tranmere to EV Charger Points Stadium in League Two (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cheltenham stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cheltenham at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tranmere — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Tranmere's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cheltenham) versus 0.90 (Tranmere). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cheltenham's games and 60% of Tranmere's (from Cheltenham's last 10 home games and Tranmere's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Tranmere in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 57% versus Tranmere 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 48% | Tranmere 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.34 xG and Tranmere 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.878 / defence 1.171 | Tranmere attack 0.864 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.256. Tranmere's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cheltenham's projected output up. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 16 games and Tranmere's last 60.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 38% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 35%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.61 | Draw 3.72 | Tranmere 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 60% (last 10 home games) | Tranmere 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, matchday 17 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 38% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cheltenham 1.34 / Tranmere 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.878 / def 1.171 | Tranmere attack 0.864 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Tranmere xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Tranmere FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Tranmere kick off?
Cheltenham vs Tranmere kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Tranmere?
Cheltenham 1 - 0 Tranmere.
Where is Cheltenham vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Tranmere part of?
Cheltenham vs Tranmere is a League Two fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 38% chance of winning, Tranmere a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cheltenham and Tranmere will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cheltenham vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.88) and Tranmere's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tranmere's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 16 games and Tranmere's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.72
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.61
1.27
Tranmere xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Tranmere Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.27 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 17W 11D 32L from 60 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Tranmere, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 28L across 60 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.03 PPG, Tranmere on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 10W 6D 14L from their last 30 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tranmere's away record stands at 7W 5D 18L across their last 30 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
Cheltenham (Home) vs Tranmere (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
❓ Cheltenham vs Tranmere Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 17W 11D 32L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 21W 11D 28L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Tranmere away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.20 PPG; Tranmere away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Tranmere have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Tranmere specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Cheltenham
0
Draws
4
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Tranmere H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Tranmere?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 1, Tranmere have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Tranmere last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Tranmere 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Tranmere?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 53%, Tranmere 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cheltenham) and 50% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 27% of games; Tranmere in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Tranmere Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Tranmere matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 53% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Tranmere matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cheltenham's recent games and 50% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Tranmere matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 73% of Tranmere's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Tranmere 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Tranmere 1-0 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.34 xG and Tranmere 1.27 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Tranmere attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 38% | Draw 27% | Tranmere 35%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Tranmere 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Tranmere's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.03 PPG, Tranmere 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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