Carlisle 0-0 Doncaster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Doncaster at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Doncaster encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Doncaster travel to Brunton Park to take on Carlisle. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's home record at Brunton Park: 1W 1D 8L from 10 League Two appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Brunton Park this season.
Across all League Two games this season, Doncaster have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Doncaster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Doncaster away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Doncaster — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Carlisle register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Doncaster in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Carlisle have won 1, Doncaster 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Doncaster winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Doncaster in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 53% versus Doncaster 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 47% | Doncaster 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.97 xG and Doncaster 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.777 / defence 1.324 | Doncaster attack 1.195 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.237. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Carlisle games / 62 Doncaster games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 18% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 60%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Doncaster 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Doncaster (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Doncaster as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 60% | Doncaster 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Doncaster | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 18% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Carlisle 0.97 / Doncaster 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.777 / def 1.324 | Doncaster attack 1.195 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Doncaster (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Doncaster xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Doncaster kick off?
Carlisle vs Doncaster kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Doncaster?
Carlisle 0 - 0 Doncaster.
Where is Carlisle vs Doncaster being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Doncaster part of?
Carlisle vs Doncaster is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Doncaster?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 18% chance of winning, Doncaster a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Doncaster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Doncaster?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Carlisle and Doncaster will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Doncaster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Doncaster?
Record (2 meetings): Carlisle 1W | Draws 0 | Doncaster 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Doncaster in?
Carlisle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Doncaster (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Carlisle vs Doncaster?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Doncaster's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Doncaster's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Doncaster Win
18%
5.59
22%
4.59
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.92
1.96
Doncaster xG
5.59
18%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
14%
7.08
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
3%
39.59
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.96 for Doncaster, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Doncaster?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle's recent record stands at 10W 12D 40L from 62 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Doncaster, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 20L across 62 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Doncaster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Doncaster by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 4W 7D 19L from 30 games — 0.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Doncaster's away record stands at 12W 7D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Doncaster come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Doncaster are on 1.56 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Doncaster
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Doncaster in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 10W 12D 40L in their last 62 games (0.68 PPG), while Doncaster have gone 30W 12D 20L in their last 62 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Doncaster away?
Doncaster's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 0.63 PPG; Doncaster away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Carlisle won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carlisle's record when hosting Doncaster specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carlisle
1
Draws
2
Doncaster
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Doncaster?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, Doncaster have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Doncaster last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Doncaster 3-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Doncaster?
Doncaster have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Carlisle at 60%, Doncaster at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Carlisle) and 67% (Doncaster). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carlisle have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Doncaster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Doncaster?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Carlisle's games and 70% of Doncaster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carlisle vs Doncaster usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Carlisle's matches and 67% of Doncaster's.
Do Carlisle and Doncaster tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Doncaster in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carlisle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 17, as Carlisle and Doncaster drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.97 xG and Doncaster 1.96 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carlisle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Doncaster landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.78 / defence 1.32 against Doncaster attack 1.20 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 18% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 60%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 47%, Doncaster 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Doncaster's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Doncaster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.