🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Cheltenham 3-5 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.32 xG and Notts County 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Notts County attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 49%, Notts County 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cheltenham's trading profile (67 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (67 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Notts County 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights