Cheltenham 3-5 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to EV Charger Points Stadium to face Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Cheltenham (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham at EV Charger Points Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Notts County's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.50 for Notts County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Notts County in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 57% versus Notts County 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 49% | Notts County 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.32 xG and Notts County 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.941 / defence 1.000 | Notts County attack 1.091 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.162. Data: 22 Cheltenham games / 67 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Notts County 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 60% | Notts County 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Cheltenham 1.32 / Notts County 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.941 / def 1.000 | Notts County attack 1.091 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Notts County xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Notts County kick off?
Cheltenham vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Cheltenham 3 - 5 Notts County.
Where is Cheltenham vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Notts County part of?
Cheltenham vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 37% chance of winning, Notts County a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cheltenham and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Notts County in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Notts County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.09x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 22/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.51
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.58
1.27
Notts County xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.27 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 20W 14D 33L from 67 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 26L across 67 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.42 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 13W 7D 15L from 35 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 10W 10D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.78 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 61%.
Last 67 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Notts County in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 20W 14D 33L in their last 67 games (1.10 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 14D 26L in their last 67 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Notts County away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.31 PPG; Notts County away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Notts County have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 5-2 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cheltenham
0
Draws
3
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Notts County?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 1, Notts County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 51%, Notts County 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cheltenham) and 57% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Cheltenham's games and 66% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cheltenham's recent games and 57% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Notts County tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Notts County in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Cheltenham 3-5 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.32 xG and Notts County 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Notts County attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 37% | Draw 28% | Notts County 35%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 49%, Notts County 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (67 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (67 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Notts County 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.