🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cheltenham and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Cheltenham and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.14 xG and Gillingham 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Gillingham attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 37% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 33%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cheltenham's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights