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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cheltenham and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Whaddon Road, Regular Season - 42, as Cheltenham and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.08 xG and Cambridge United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Cambridge United attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 39%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cheltenham's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.20 PPG, Cambridge United 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights