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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Swindon Town run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Carlisle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Carlisle 1-5 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.94 xG and Swindon Town 1.21 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Swindon Town outscored their 1.21 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.62 / defence 1.15 against Swindon Town attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 27/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 27% | Draw 32% | Swindon Town 41%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 44%, Swindon Town 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Swindon Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Carlisle (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights