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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Carlisle and Salford City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle and Salford City finished level at 2-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.12 xG and Salford City 1.94 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.92 / defence 1.33 against Salford City attack 1.28 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 21% | Draw 23% | Salford City 56%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 46%, Salford City 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.98 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights