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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle beat Accrington ST 2-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.00 xG and Accrington ST 1.58 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.56 / defence 1.16 against Accrington ST attack 1.16 / defence 1.36, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Carlisle 23% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 50%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 44%, Accrington ST 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Carlisle's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights