Bromley 2-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bromley at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bromley vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hayes Lane plays host to Bromley versus Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bromley (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bromley's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Hayes Lane this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Bromley against 1.60 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Bromley are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Bromley winning.
The historical record gives Bromley a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Bromley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bromley 56% versus Accrington ST 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bromley 49% | Accrington ST 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bromley 1.30 xG and Accrington ST 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bromley attack 1.235 / defence 0.963 | Accrington ST attack 0.928 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Data: 79 Bromley games / 79 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bromley 42% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 30%. Fair-value odds: Bromley 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Accrington ST 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bromley as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bromley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bromley 80% | Accrington ST 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bromley vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Hayes Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bromley 42% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bromley 1.30 / Accrington ST 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bromley attack 1.235 / def 0.963 | Accrington ST attack 0.928 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Bromley (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bromley xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Accrington ST xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bromley vs Accrington ST kick off?
Bromley vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Hayes Lane.
What was the final score in Bromley vs Accrington ST?
Bromley 2 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Bromley vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Hayes Lane.
What competition is Bromley vs Accrington ST part of?
Bromley vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bromley vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Bromley a 42% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bromley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bromley vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bromley and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Bromley vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Bromley 3W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Bromley and Accrington ST in?
Bromley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bromley's attack at 1.24x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.93x) against Bromley's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bromley Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.62
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bromley xG
Total xG
2.36
1.06
Accrington ST xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bromley vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bromley and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bromley and 1.06 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bromley vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 79 outings, Bromley have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 35W 26D 18L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 25W 21D 33L from 79 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Bromley are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bromley have posted 1.74 PPG from 39 outings (18W 14D 7L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 12W 7D 20L from 39 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bromley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bromley are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.13 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bromley
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bromley and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Bromley have gone 35W 26D 18L in their last 79 games (1.66 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 25W 21D 33L in their last 79 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bromley at home or Accrington ST away?
Bromley's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bromley at home: 1.74 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bromley or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bromley have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bromley go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bromley won 4-0 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bromley have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Bromley
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Bromley have won 4, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bromley and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Bromley 2-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Bromley and Accrington ST?
Bromley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bromley 62%, Accrington ST 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Bromley) and 46% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Bromley keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Accrington ST in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bromley home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bromley play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bromley's recent matches and 46% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bromley vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Bromley's recent games and 46% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bromley and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Bromley have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bromley edge out Accrington ST 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bromley beat Accrington ST 2-1 at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 1.30 xG and Accrington ST 1.06 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Accrington ST attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bromley 42% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 30%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 49%, Accrington ST 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bromley's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.