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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol Rovers beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.37 xG and Crawley Town 0.70 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bristol Rovers beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Crawley Town attack 0.60 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 53% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 19%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 49%, Crawley Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.08 PPG, Crawley Town 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights