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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Barrow defy the odds to beat Notts County 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barrow beat Notts County 2-1 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.09 xG and Notts County 1.28 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Barrow beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Notts County attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 30% | Draw 30% | Notts County 40%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Barrow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 35%, Notts County 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.23 PPG, Notts County 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barrow win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights