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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Barrow 0-2 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.21 xG and Cambridge United 0.75 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Barrow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Cambridge United attack 0.60 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barrow 47% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 23%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 40%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barrow's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barrow 1.26 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights