Barrow 0-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Barrow at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Cambridge United travel to Holker Street to take on Barrow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Barrow have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holker Street, Barrow have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cambridge United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Barrow 1.30 PPG, Cambridge United 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Barrow trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cambridge United trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 42% versus Cambridge United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 40% | Cambridge United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.21 xG and Cambridge United 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.906 / defence 1.059 | Cambridge United attack 0.599 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.189. Data: 62 Barrow games / 16 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 47% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 23%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Cambridge United 4.35. Barrow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Barrow are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barrow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Barrow 50% | Cambridge United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Cambridge United | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Holker Street • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 47% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Barrow 1.21 / Cambridge United 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.906 / def 1.059 | Cambridge United attack 0.599 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Barrow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Cambridge United xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Cambridge United kick off?
Barrow vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Holker Street.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Cambridge United?
Barrow 0 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Barrow vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Holker Street.
What competition is Barrow vs Cambridge United part of?
Barrow vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 47% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Barrow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Barrow and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Barrow and Cambridge United in?
Barrow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Barrow's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.32
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Barrow xG
Total xG
1.96
0.75
Cambridge United xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Barrow and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Barrow and 0.75 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Barrow's recent record stands at 20W 18D 24L from 62 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 31L across 62 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 1.26 PPG, Cambridge United on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Barrow have managed 12W 10D 9L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 5W 8D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barrow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.98 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 20W 18D 24L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 15W 16D 31L in their last 62 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Cambridge United away?
Barrow's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.48 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Barrow
0
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Cambridge United?
From 2 meetings on record, Barrow have won 0, Cambridge United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Cambridge United 3-0 Barrow.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 45%, Cambridge United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Barrow) and 45% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Barrow have failed to score in 26% of games; Cambridge United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Barrow's recent matches and 48% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Barrow's recent games and 45% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Barrow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Barrow 0-2 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.21 xG and Cambridge United 0.75 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Barrow fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Cambridge United attack 0.60 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 47% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 23%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 40%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.26 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.