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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AFC Wimbledon and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon and Swindon Town finished level at 1-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 2.01 xG and Swindon Town 0.90 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Swindon Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 63% | Draw 22% | Swindon Town 15%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 39%, Swindon Town 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Swindon Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.48 PPG, Swindon Town 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights