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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Salford City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Salford City 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Salford City 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 / defence 0.68 against Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 48% | Draw 30% | Salford City 22%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 37%, Salford City 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Salford City's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.56 PPG, Salford City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights