AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 32 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Salford City to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Salford City's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.80 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 2 for Salford City and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Salford City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 39% versus Salford City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 37% | Salford City 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Salford City 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.136 / defence 0.679 | Salford City attack 1.063 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.120. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 AFC Wimbledon games / 76 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 48% | Draw 30% | Salford City 22%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Salford City 4.55. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Salford City 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 48% | Draw 30% | Salford City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.32 / Salford City 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.136 / def 0.679 | Salford City attack 1.063 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Salford City xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 48% chance of winning, Salford City a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Salford City?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 2 | Salford City 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Salford City in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Salford City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.34
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Salford City xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.81 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 32W 21D 22L from 75 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 29L across 75 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.56 PPG, Salford City on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 21W 7D 8L from 36 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 11W 11D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.36 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Salford City in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 32W 21D 22L in their last 75 games (1.56 PPG), while Salford City have gone 25W 21D 29L in their last 75 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Salford City away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.94 PPG; Salford City away: 1.22 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Salford City in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
2
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Salford City?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Salford City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 39%, Salford City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AFC Wimbledon) and 47% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Salford City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 56% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 47% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Salford City tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Salford City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Salford City 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Salford City 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 / defence 0.68 against Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 48% | Draw 30% | Salford City 22%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 37%, Salford City 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salford City's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.56 PPG, Salford City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.