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Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Notts County 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.09 xG and Notts County 1.13 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Notts County landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against Notts County attack 1.25 / defence 0.94, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 34% | Draw 30% | Notts County 36%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 34%, Notts County 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Notts County's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.52 PPG, Notts County 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights