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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Accrington ST.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Accrington ST 0-4 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.93 xG and Notts County 1.07 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Notts County outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Notts County attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 31% | Draw 31% | Notts County 38%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 43%, Notts County 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Notts County's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights