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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Accrington ST and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.44 xG and Gillingham 0.73 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Gillingham attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 54% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 19%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 59%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights