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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Accrington ST 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Accrington ST 1-2 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.82 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.89 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fleetwood Town outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.77 / defence 0.82, drawn from 87/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 31% | Draw 34% | Fleetwood Town 35%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 41%, Fleetwood Town 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (87 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (87 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.16 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights