Accrington ST 1-2 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fleetwood Town at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to The Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 43). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Accrington ST's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Accrington ST are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fleetwood Town away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Fleetwood Town arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Accrington ST, 4 for Fleetwood Town and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Accrington ST 1–2 Fleetwood Town — a Fleetwood Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (last 87 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (last 87 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 45% versus Fleetwood Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 41% | Fleetwood Town 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Accrington ST surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Fleetwood Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 0.82 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.820 / defence 0.976 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.774 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.172. Fleetwood Town's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 87 games and Fleetwood Town's last 88.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 31% | Draw 34% | Fleetwood Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.19 | Draw 2.95 | Fleetwood Town 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Accrington ST's lower xG of 0.82 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fleetwood Town are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 20% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 43 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 31% | Draw 34% | Fleetwood Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Accrington ST 0.82 / Fleetwood Town 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.820 / def 0.976 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.774 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fleetwood Town xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town?
Accrington ST 1 - 2 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 31% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.82) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.77x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 87 games and Fleetwood Town's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.95
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
1.71
0.89
Fleetwood Town xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 16.0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.89 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 87 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 26W 23D 38L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Fleetwood Town's form line: 28W 28D 31L from 87 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.29 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 44 home games (14W 15D 15L).
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 9D 21L from their last 44 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.26 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 26W 23D 38L in their last 87 games (1.16 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 28W 28D 31L in their last 87 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.30 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town, the earliest from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Fleetwood Town have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Accrington ST won Accrington ST 5-1 Fleetwood Town on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
1
Draws
5
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Accrington ST 1-2 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 39% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 46%, Fleetwood Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Accrington ST) and 48% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 34% of games; Fleetwood Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 52% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Accrington ST's recent games and 48% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 68% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Accrington ST 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Accrington ST 1-2 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.82 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.89 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fleetwood Town outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.77 / defence 0.82, drawn from 87/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 31% | Draw 34% | Fleetwood Town 35%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 41%, Fleetwood Town 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (87 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (87 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.16 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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