🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Fleetwood Town run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Accrington ST.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fleetwood Town beat Accrington ST 1-4 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.61 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fleetwood Town outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.25 / defence 1.31, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 46% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 29%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Fleetwood Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 58%, Fleetwood Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.16 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights