Accrington ST vs Exeter City Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Exeter City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Accrington ST and Exeter City meet at The Wham Stadium in League Two (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Accrington ST's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Accrington ST have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Exeter City have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Exeter City have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Accrington ST, 2 for Exeter City and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2026, ended Accrington ST 0–2 Exeter City — a Exeter City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Exeter City — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Exeter City 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Accrington ST 40% | Exeter City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.43 xG and Exeter City 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.097 / defence 0.986 | Exeter City attack 0.644 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Exeter City's attack rating of 0.644 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 60 games and Exeter City's last 14.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 52% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 17%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.92 | Draw 3.28 | Exeter City 5.77. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 70% (last 10 home games) | Exeter City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Exeter City | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 52% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Accrington ST 1.43 / Exeter City 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.097 / def 0.986 | Exeter City attack 0.644 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Exeter City xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Exeter City FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Exeter City kick off?
Accrington ST vs Exeter City is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at The Wham Stadium.
Where is Accrington ST vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Exeter City part of?
Accrington ST vs Exeter City is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 52% chance of winning, Exeter City a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Accrington ST and Exeter City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Accrington ST vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (0.64x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 60 games and Exeter City's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
52%
1.92
31%
3.28
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.15
0.72
Exeter City xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
4%
24.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Exeter City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.72 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 18D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Exeter City sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (17W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.13 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Exeter City have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.05 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
Accrington ST (Home) vs Exeter City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
❓ Accrington ST vs Exeter City Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 17W 17D 26L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Exeter City away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.50 PPG; Exeter City away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Exeter City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Accrington ST and Exeter City, the earliest from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Exeter City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Exeter City won Exeter City 5-0 Accrington ST on 25 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
2
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Exeter City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Exeter City?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 0, Exeter City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Exeter City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Exeter City 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 50%, Exeter City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Accrington ST) and 40% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 27% of games; Exeter City in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Exeter City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Exeter City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 43% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Exeter City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Accrington ST's recent games and 40% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Exeter City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 67% of Exeter City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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