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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Accrington ST and Crawley Town drew 3-3 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Crawley Town attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 43%, Crawley Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.13 PPG, Crawley Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights