Accrington ST 3-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to The Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 45). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Accrington ST's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Accrington ST at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.00 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Crawley Town in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Crawley Town edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Accrington ST 1–1 Crawley Town — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Crawley Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 43% | Crawley Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.827 / defence 1.029 | Crawley Town attack 0.622 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.200. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.622 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 90 games and Crawley Town's last 44.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.19 | Draw 3.29 | Crawley Town 4.18. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 30% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Accrington ST 1.18 / Crawley Town 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.827 / def 1.029 | Crawley Town attack 0.622 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Crawley Town xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Accrington ST 3 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Accrington ST and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Accrington ST vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.83) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.62x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 90 games and Crawley Town's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.29
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
1.95
0.77
Crawley Town xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.77 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 90 games, going 26W 24D 40L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.93 PPG from 90 outings (20W 24D 46L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Accrington ST against 0.93 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 14W 15D 16L across their last 45 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 45 away games (8W 9D 28L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 26W 24D 40L in their last 90 games (1.13 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 20W 24D 46L in their last 90 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crawley Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.27 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 1, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Accrington ST 3-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 39% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 47%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Accrington ST) and 56% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 33% of games; Crawley Town in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Accrington ST's recent games and 56% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 64% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Accrington ST and Crawley Town drew 3-3 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Crawley Town attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 43%, Crawley Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.13 PPG, Crawley Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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