Accrington ST 0-1 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Chesterfield.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Accrington ST welcome Chesterfield to The Wham Stadium in League Two (matchday 39). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Accrington ST have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Accrington ST's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chesterfield stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chesterfield's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Accrington ST at 1.10 PPG versus Chesterfield's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Chesterfield and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Accrington ST 3–3 Chesterfield — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Accrington ST trading profile (last 83 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Chesterfield trading profile (last 83 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Chesterfield 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 43% | Chesterfield 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Accrington ST surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Chesterfield have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.08 xG and Chesterfield 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.823 / defence 1.061 | Chesterfield attack 1.147 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.198. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 83 games and Chesterfield's last 84.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 28% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 46%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.57 | Draw 3.82 | Chesterfield 2.18. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chesterfield at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 30% (last 10 home games) | Chesterfield 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, matchday 39 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 28% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Accrington ST 1.08 / Chesterfield 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.823 / def 1.061 | Chesterfield attack 1.147 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Chesterfield xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Chesterfield FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Chesterfield kick off?
Accrington ST vs Chesterfield kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Chesterfield?
Accrington ST 0 - 1 Chesterfield.
Where is Accrington ST vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Chesterfield part of?
Accrington ST vs Chesterfield is a League Two fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 28% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Accrington ST and Chesterfield will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Accrington ST vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Chesterfield's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 83 games and Chesterfield's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.82
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.54
1.46
Chesterfield xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Chesterfield Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.46 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST's recent record stands at 25W 23D 35L from 83 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have gone 33W 25D 25L across 83 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.18 PPG, Chesterfield on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Accrington ST have managed 13W 15D 14L from their last 42 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chesterfield's away record stands at 15W 10D 17L across their last 42 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.53 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Chesterfield (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Chesterfield Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 23D 35L in their last 83 games (1.18 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 33W 25D 25L in their last 83 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Chesterfield away?
Chesterfield's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.29 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when Accrington ST won Chesterfield 0-3 Accrington ST.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Chesterfield specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
1
Draws
2
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Chesterfield H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Chesterfield?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 1, Chesterfield have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Chesterfield last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Accrington ST 0-1 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Chesterfield?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 39% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 48%, Chesterfield 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Accrington ST) and 50% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 33% of games; Chesterfield in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Chesterfield Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Chesterfield matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 50% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Chesterfield matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Accrington ST's recent games and 50% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Chesterfield matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 64% of Chesterfield's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Accrington ST 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Accrington ST 0-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.08 xG and Chesterfield 1.46 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Chesterfield attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 83/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 28% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 46%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 43%, Chesterfield 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chesterfield's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.18 PPG, Chesterfield 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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