🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cheltenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Cheltenham 3-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Cheltenham 0.94 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Cheltenham attack 0.90 / defence 1.39, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 22%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 45%, Cheltenham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Cheltenham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.19 PPG, Cheltenham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Cheltenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights