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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST and Carlisle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Accrington ST and Carlisle drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.38 xG and Carlisle 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Carlisle attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 45% | Draw 29% | Carlisle 26%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 60%, Carlisle 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Carlisle's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.16 PPG, Carlisle 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights