Accrington ST 1-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Accrington ST and Cambridge United meet at The Wham Stadium in League Two (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Accrington ST have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Accrington ST are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Cambridge United have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cambridge United are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Cambridge United edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Accrington ST 0–2 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 48% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 44% | Cambridge United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 0.82 xG and Cambridge United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.832 / defence 0.925 | Cambridge United attack 1.096 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.150. Cambridge United bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Accrington ST's projected output down. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 80 games and Cambridge United's last 34.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 26% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 44%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.88 | Draw 3.30 | Cambridge United 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 30% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Cambridge United | Competition: League Two, matchday 36 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 26% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Accrington ST 0.82 / Cambridge United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.832 / def 0.925 | Cambridge United attack 1.096 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cambridge United xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Cambridge United kick off?
Accrington ST vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Cambridge United?
Accrington ST 1 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Accrington ST vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Cambridge United part of?
Accrington ST vs Cambridge United is a League Two fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 26% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Accrington ST and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Accrington ST vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (1.10x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 80 games and Cambridge United's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.30
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
1.98
1.17
Cambridge United xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.17 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 80 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 25W 21D 34L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 27W 21D 32L from 80 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.27 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 40 home games (13W 14D 13L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 11W 10D 19L from their last 40 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.18 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 21D 34L in their last 80 games (1.20 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 27W 21D 32L in their last 80 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Cambridge United away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.32 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
1
Draws
3
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cambridge United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 2, Cambridge United have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Accrington ST 1-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 48%, Cambridge United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Accrington ST) and 45% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games; Cambridge United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 48% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Accrington ST's recent games and 45% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 68% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Accrington ST and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.82 xG and Cambridge United 1.17 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Cambridge United attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 26% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 44%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 44%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cambridge United's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.20 PPG, Cambridge United 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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