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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Accrington ST and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Accrington ST and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 0.82 xG and Cambridge United 1.17 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Cambridge United attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 26% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 44%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 44%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.20 PPG, Cambridge United 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights