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Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Charlton 3-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.09 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.01 / defence 0.83 against Charlton attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights