🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Charlton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Wrexham and Charlton meet at STōK Cae Ras in League One, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Wrexham's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at STōK Cae Ras, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras.

Charlton have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Charlton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wrexham lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Wrexham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 47% versus Charlton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | Charlton 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.09 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.014 / defence 0.831 | Charlton attack 1.137 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.178. Data: 44 Wrexham games / 90 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 50% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights