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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wrexham and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 28, as Wrexham and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.25 xG and Birmingham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.15 / defence 0.74 against Birmingham attack 1.19 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 40% | Draw 29% | Birmingham 30%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 51%, Birmingham 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Birmingham's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights