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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Mansfield Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wigan beat Mansfield Town 2-1 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.78 xG and Mansfield Town 0.77 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wigan beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.71 / defence 0.77 against Mansfield Town attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 87/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 32% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wigan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 33%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wigan 1.24 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wigan win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights